The Most Accurately Predicted Genocide in History

There was satellite imagery, survivor testimony, and mass graves. Still, the world looked away from Sudan

BY MICHELLE SHEPHARD

From writer Michelle Shephard:

At the end of 2025, I travelled to refugee camps in Chad, along the border with Sudan, with two objectives in mind. I wanted to talk directly to survivors and document the war crimes unfolding in their homeland, and I wanted to find out why we know so little about this war. I was horrified by what I discovered. The genocide, which continues to unfold today, is even more horrific and sweeping than I imagined. And we know so little not simply because we are overwhelmed by tragedy or the complicated geopolitics of the conflict. Sudan is a study in how to hide a genocide.

Nathaniel Raymond and his team at the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health have been warning since the very start of the war nearly three years ago that a genocide is taking place. I asked him at the end of a long interview just how he and his team cope with their job of documenting war crimes while largely being ignored by those who have the power to stop it. His quote was crushing—and I conclude my story with it. But to summarize less eloquently, he answered, What’s the alternative? To stop?

It’s a similar plea I have for readers: to not turn away from these difficult stories. And it’s why I’m so thankful The Walrus can support this work. We can all feel helpless and fatigued, but understanding why a crisis is unfolding is the first step to making it stop.