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By denying the stronger party the easy win that it (and everybody else) expects to see.
By making it expend too many resources, for too long, such that it will “suffer an unsustainable loss in public confidence both at home and abroad.”
The US has been taught (but has not necessarily learned) this lesson in real wars, from Vietnam to, now, Iran. Canada can learn a few things from Iran about how they’ve handled the US.
Canada can’t derail the whole US economy. But we can identify what the US administration wants and how it intends to get it, stymie those aims, and eventually “win by not losing.”
Despite its overall strength, Jones writes that the US has four clear weaknesses that Canada can target:
1. Internal division
A country needs widespread buy-in to weather a protracted conflict, but the US of 2026 is deeply divided ideologically, regionally, racially, economically, culturally—you name it.
The strategy: Target key regions “to economically hurt people who can politically hurt Trump.” For example, these five Trump-supporting states are vulnerable to tariffs ahead of key midterm elections.
The risk: Punish Americans too aggressively, and Canada could inadvertently create a unified front rather than exploit the lack of one.
2. Financial vulnerability
Despite being the world’s largest economy, the US is $40 trillion in debt and reliant on the AI bubble to avoid recession. Its workforce is aging, and its government is aggressively antagonizing immigration, the typical source of cheap replacement labour.
The strategy: Outlast the US while steadily diversifying away from it and retaliating selectively at pressure points.
The risk: The US is our biggest trade partner no matter what, and a recession there will damage us too.
3. A chaotic leader
In his second term Trump has consolidated spectacular power and an unprecedented ability to flout norms. But the lack of checks and balances, or steadier hands in his circle, also gives him the ability to fail spectacularly.
And while Canada can focus fully on this struggle, Trump is likely to try to distract the public—and himself—with a new conflict.
The strategy: Not really anything here. “Never interrupt your enemy while he is busy defeating himself.”
The risk: What we’re already experiencing: extreme, unreasonable action against us when we attract the chaotic leader’s attention.
4. Arrogance
Trump and others see Canada as already nearly a vassal that is dependent on the US. But Canada is a large economy and an appealing trade partner around the world; a resource-rich country that is reliable and stable compared to many other options—including the US, increasingly.
The strategy: Reduce dependence on the US.
The risk: Diversifying trade won't happen overnight. Over time we can recoup the losses, but right now the US is a huge and entrenched partner for us and reducing that will cost us. For example, Saskatchewan has been reluctant to cut into its billion-dollar potash exports.
Overall, this won’t be simple or easy. Jones acknowledges that in a contest, your opponent can see your strategy and respond rather than just letting you do it. If we “rag the puck” to wait this out, the administration will apply pressure by further escalating tariffs. And it has already targeted our own internal divisions between political factions and provinces just as we can target states.
But the US is not just the Trump administration. Jones writes that we can build new and different relationships with various states, municipalities, and industries that are more willing to make a deal than the Art of the Deal author.
Do you think Canada has other key advantages or America other key weaknesses? Reply to this email and let us know.
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